01 — Market Overview
The Prediction Market Explosion
Prediction markets allow users to trade binary or multi-outcome contracts on any verifiable real-world event — elections, economic data, crypto prices, sports, weather, and more. The industry has transitioned from niche DeFi experiment to mainstream financial instrument.
$222.5B
2026 Projected Notional Volume
↑ 82% vs Q4 2025 run rate
445B
Contracts Traded (2026 est.)
↑ 4.7× YoY
$701.7M
Peak Daily Volume (2026)
↑ 130× from 2024
679K
Polymarket MAU (Feb 2026)
↑ All-Time High
Source: Piper Sandler, CertiK Skynet Report, Bitget, PM Insights
02 — Growth Trajectory
Key Growth Metrics
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (Projected) |
|---|
| Contracts Traded | ~40B | 95B | 445B |
| Notional Volume | ~$50B | ~$120B | $222.5B |
| Polymarket Annual Volume | $9B | $22B (+57%) | $40B+ (est.) |
| Kalshi Annual Revenue | ~$24M | $260M (+994%) | $500M+ (est.) |
| Polymarket MAU | 314,500 | 445,000 | 679,000 |
| Peak Daily Volume | ~$100M | $291M | $701.7M |
Industry Volume Growth — Year over Year
Total Addressable Market
| Market Segment | 2024 Size | 2030 Projection | CAGR |
|---|
| Global Online Gambling | $78.66B | $153.57B | 11.9% |
| Sports Betting | $44.2B | ~$85B | ~12% |
| Predictive Analytics Software | — | $82B | — |
| Prediction Markets (Crypto) | ~$50B vol | $222.5B+ vol | ~80%+ |
Key insight: Prediction markets are growing at 80%+ CAGR — far exceeding the broader online gambling sector at 12%. The vertical is capturing share from traditional sportsbooks while creating entirely new demand for non-sports event trading.
03 — Competitive Landscape
The Two Giants
Polymarket
Founded2020
ChainPolygon
SettlementUSDC
2025 Volume$22B (+57%)
MAU (Feb 2026)679,000
KYCMinimal
Fiat On-rampNone (crypto-only)
Fee ModelTransaction-based (~0.5–1%)
Funding History
2024–2025
Undisclosed Rounds — $205M
Valuation: $1.2B
Oct 2025
ICE Strategic Investment — $2B
Valuation: $8–9B. NYSE parent company.
Late 2025
Reported talks
Valuation: $12–15B
Kalshi
Founded2018 (launched 2021)
RegulationCFTC-regulated DCM
SettlementUSD (Fiat)
2025 Revenue$260M (+994%)
Countries140+
KYCFull (1099, segregated accounts)
Fee ModelParabolic formula ($0.01–$0.035/contract)
Funding History
Oct 2025
Series D — $300M
Valuation: $5B
Dec 2025
Series E — $1B (Paradigm lead)
Valuation: $11B. Doubled in 2 months.
Other Decentralised Competitors
| Platform | Chain | Focus | Fee | Status |
|---|
| SX Network | Polygon | Sports | 1–3% spread | Active, niche |
| Hedgehog Markets | Solana | General | Varies | Active, small |
| Augur | Ethereum | General | Gas + maker/taker | Legacy, low activity |
| Azuro | Gnosis/Polygon | Sports | 1–3% protocol fee | Active, sports-focused |
| Thales | Optimism | Sports/Crypto | Spread-based | Active, niche |
| Overtime Markets | Optimism/Arbitrum | Sports | AMM spread | Active, growing |
| Drift Protocol | Solana | Prediction/Perps | Trading fees | Active |
Chain coverage: Polygon, Solana, Ethereum, Optimism, Arbitrum, Gnosis — all have at least one prediction market. Avalanche has zero.
04 — Fee Structures
Revenue Models — Industry Benchmark
| Platform | Fee Structure | Effective Rate | Who Pays |
|---|
| Polymarket | Transaction fee on trades | ~0.5–1% | Both sides |
| Kalshi | Parabolic formula per contract | $0.01–$0.035 | Taker (maker ~25%) |
| PredictIt | 10% on profits + 5% withdrawal | 15% | Winners |
| Azuro / SX Network | Protocol spread | 1–3% | Built into odds |
| Robinhood (via Kalshi) | Per contract | <1% | Buyer |
| Ventirum (Ours) | 2% flat on entire pool | 2% of volume | Both sides |
Where Ventirum's 2% Fee Sits
✓ Cheaper than PredictIt
2% vs 15% — attracts serious bettors who refuse to lose 15 cents on the dollar.
✓ Simpler than Kalshi
Flat percentage vs parabolic formula. Better UX, no calculator needed.
✓ More Transparent than Polymarket
Explicit fee vs hidden spread. Users know exactly what they pay.
Revenue at Scale — 2% of Volume
| Annual Platform Volume | Revenue (2%) |
|---|
| $10M | $200K |
| $50M | $1M |
| $100M | $2M |
| $500M | $10M |
| $1B | $20M |
| $5B | $100M |
Kalshi generated $260M revenue on ~$26B volume in 2025 (~1% effective). Our 2% take is 2× but still well below PredictIt (15%) and comparable to Azuro/SX (1–3% spread).
05 — Investment Landscape
Capital Flowing Into Prediction Markets
$3.3B+
Raised by top 2 platforms in H2 2025
$11B
Kalshi Valuation (Dec 2025)
$8–9B
Polymarket Valuation (Oct 2025)
Valuation Multiples
Kalshi
2025 Revenue$260M
Valuation$11B
Revenue Multiple42×
Polymarket
2025 RevenueEst. $100–150M
Valuation$8–9B
Revenue Multiple60–90×
What this means for Ventirum: At $50M annual volume → $1M revenue → $20M implied valuation (conservative 20× multiple, half of Kalshi's). At $500M volume → $10M revenue → $200M implied valuation. The key driver is growth rate and strategic positioning, not current revenue.
06 — The Avalanche Opportunity
The Competitive Vacuum
No mainstream prediction market exists on Avalanche.
This is the single largest first-mover opportunity in prediction markets today.
Where Competitors Are Deployed
Why Avalanche
Sub-Second Finality
Instant bet confirmation and real-time trading. No waiting for block confirmations.
4,500+ TPS
Handles high-frequency event trading without network congestion.
Near-Zero Gas Fees
Micro-bets become economically viable. No $5 gas fee on a $10 bet.
Custom Subnets
Dedicated prediction market subnet with isolated, optimised performance — no noisy neighbours.
Institutional Credibility
JPMorgan, Citi, Stripe partnerships. VanEck ETF registration. Institutional trust signal.
EVM Compatible
Solidity smart contracts, familiar tooling, easy migration from other EVM chains.
Historical parallel: Being the first prediction market on Avalanche is equivalent to Polymarket launching on Polygon when no competitor existed there, or Kalshi getting the first CFTC license. Ecosystem exclusivity creates a moat that is extremely difficult to replicate.
07 — Financial Projections
Ventirum on Avalanche — Revenue Model
Per-User Economics (Industry Benchmarks)
37
Trades / Active User / Month
$140
Average Bet Size (USDC)
$5,180
Monthly Volume / Active User
2%
Flat Fee on Entire Pool
Year 1 Monthly Projection (Moderate Growth)
| Month | Active Users | Trades/User | Vol/User | Total Volume | Revenue (2%) |
|---|
| 1 | 1,500 | 20 | $2,800 | $4.2M | $84K |
| 2 | 3,500 | 25 | $3,500 | $12.3M | $245K |
| 3 | 6,000 | 30 | $4,200 | $25.2M | $504K |
| 6 | 16,000 | 37 | $5,180 | $82.9M | $1.66M |
| 9 | 22,000 | 37 | $5,180 | $114M | $2.28M |
| 12 | 25,000 | 37 | $5,180 | $129.5M | $2.59M |
| Year 1 Total | | | | $921M | $18.4M |
3-Year Growth Trajectory
| Year | Active Users (Dec) | Avg Vol/User/Mo | Annual Volume | Revenue (2%) |
|---|
| Year 1 | 25,000 | $5,180 | $921M | $18.4M |
| Year 2 | 60,000 | $5,500 | $3.96B | $79.2M |
| Year 3 | 120,000 | $6,000 | $8.64B | $172.8M |
End of Year 3 — Scenario Analysis
Bear
$30.2M
30K users · $1.51B volume
Valuation: $604M
Base
$79.2M
60K users · $3.96B volume
Valuation: $1.58B
Bull
$172.8M
120K users · $8.64B volume
Valuation: $3.46B
Moonshot
$336M
200K users · $16.8B volume
Valuation: $6.72B
All valuations at conservative 20× revenue multiple (half of Kalshi's 42×). Kalshi hit $260M revenue and $11B valuation in Year 4.
Operational Costs (Lean Infrastructure)
| Item | Monthly Cost |
|---|
| Oracle Infrastructure (Azure Functions) | $200 |
| Multi-chain RPC Nodes | $100 |
| Hosting (Azure Standard) | $165 |
| Liquidity Incentives (Variable) | $500 – $5,000 |
| Marketing (Email/SMS campaigns) | $2,000 – $10,000 |
| Total Baseline | $2,965 – $15,465 |
Cash-flow positive from launch. Break-even at max costs ($15.5K/mo) requires just $775K monthly volume — achieved well before Month 1 in the moderate scenario.
08 — Market Dynamics
What's Driving the Boom
Regulatory Clarity
CFTC approval of event contracts removed the biggest barrier to mainstream adoption. Polymarket relaunched in the US in 2025.
The Election Catalyst
2024 US presidential election was the "iPhone moment" for prediction markets. Both platforms outperformed traditional polls.
Sports Integration
Sports betting drives 91% of Kalshi and 40% of Polymarket volume. NFL, NBA, and soccer deliver consistent, recurring engagement.
Gen Z Adoption
54% of Gen Z are risk-tolerant, drawn to gamified finance, micro-bets, and AI recommendations.
Institutional Entry
ICE/NYSE backing Polymarket signals Wall Street legitimisation. Probabilistic forecasts are being packaged for institutional workflows.
AI Trading Agents
AI-driven bots for automated market-making and arbitrage are a growing segment, increasing total volume across all platforms.
Innovation Vectors
Micro-markets
AI-driven resolution
Cross-chain aggregation
Parametric insurance
Data monetisation
Token incentives
09 — Key Takeaways
The Case for Ventirum
The Bull Case
-
1.
$222.5B projected 2026 volume — the market is real and exploding.
-
2.
Zero competition on Avalanche — first-mover advantage on a top-10 L1.
-
3.
2% flat fee is competitive — simpler and cheaper than most alternatives.
-
4.
$11B+ valuations for incumbents prove massive VC appetite at 42–90× multiples.
-
5.
B2B2C model eliminates cold-start marketing spend that kills most platforms.
-
6.
Institutional legitimisation (ICE/NYSE, VanEck ETF) signals a permanent market category.
-
7.
Avalanche subnets allow a dedicated, optimised prediction chain.
The Bear Case
-
1.
Regulatory risk is existential — one adverse ruling could shut down unregulated markets.
-
2.
Liquidity bootstrapping is the #1 execution risk — empty markets = zero revenue.
-
3.
Well-funded competitors ($3.3B+ raised in H2 2025) could expand to Avalanche.
-
4.
Whale concentration — 63% of Polymarket volume from 0.23% of wallets.
-
5.
Oracle integrity issues could destroy trust before gaining traction.
Bottom Line
The prediction market industry is experiencing once-in-a-decade hypergrowth with massive institutional validation. Avalanche is a proven, high-performance blockchain with zero prediction market coverage. The math works at even modest scale — $50M volume = $1M revenue — and the valuation upside is extreme if Ventirum captures even a fraction of market share.
Sources: Piper Sandler, CertiK Skynet Report, TheStreet, TechCrunch, Forbes, NYT, PM Insights, Grand View Research, AInvest, Bitget, Yahoo Finance, DefiRate, The Block, QuantVPS, Sacra